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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Alverca defy the odds to beat Rio Ave 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alverca beat Rio Ave 1-2 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.36 xG and Alverca 1.24 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Alverca attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 40% | Draw 26% | Alverca 34%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Alverca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 63%, Alverca 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Alverca's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rio Ave 1.11 PPG, Alverca 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alverca win broke the near-deadlock. Alverca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights