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Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Nacional 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Nacional 1-2 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.33 xG and SC Braga 1.72 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 1.04 / defence 1.07 against SC Braga attack 1.35 / defence 0.82, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 30% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 47%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 47%, SC Braga 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

SC Braga's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights