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Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out Nacional 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Nacional 1-2 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.03 xG and Guimaraes 1.38 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.88 / defence 1.20 against Guimaraes attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 28% | Draw 27% | Guimaraes 45%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 39%, Guimaraes 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Guimaraes's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights