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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 32

Kick-off

Sat 3 May 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio da Madeira

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

28%

Nacional

3.56

27%

Draw

3.70

45%

Guimaraes

2.23

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.8%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

12.3%

Away win

1 – 0

9.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.03

Nacional xG

Total xG

2.42

1.38

Guimaraes xG

28%
27%
45%
NacionalDrawGuimaraes

3.56

28%

Home win

3.70

27%

Draw

2.23

45%

Away win

Goals Markets

70%

Over 1.5

1.43

30%

Under 1.5

3.33

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.07

52%

BTTS No

1.93

Clean Sheet

25%

Nacional

3.99

36%

Guimaraes

2.81

Win to Nil

7%

Nacional

14.19

16%

Guimaraes

6.27

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.9 12.3 8.5 3.9 1.4 0.4
1 9.2 12.8 8.8 4.1 1.4 0.4
2 4.8 6.6 4.6 2.1 0.7 0.2
3 1.6 2.3 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.034
λ Away (xG) 1.383
Total xG 2.417
League avg home goals 1.282
League avg away goals 1.206
Nacional attack strength 0.882
Nacional defence strength 1.202
Guimaraes attack strength 0.954
Guimaraes defence strength 0.915
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 31 / 65