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GIL Vicente cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat Nacional 0-2 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.36 xG and GIL Vicente 1.37 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nacional fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against GIL Vicente attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 37% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 37%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 44%, GIL Vicente 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nacional 1.00 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights