🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Nacional cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Porto.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional beat FC Porto 2-0 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 0.81 xG and FC Porto 1.74 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nacional beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Porto landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.70 / defence 1.04 against FC Porto attack 1.39 / defence 0.85, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 16% | Draw 25% | FC Porto 59%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Nacional win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 31%, FC Porto 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

FC Porto's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 69% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Nacional winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. FC Porto (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights