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Shock result as Nacional defy the odds to beat Famalicao 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional beat Famalicao 2-1 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.24 xG and Famalicao 1.46 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Famalicao attack 1.16 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 31% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 41%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Nacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 35%, Famalicao 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Famalicao's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nacional 1.00 PPG, Famalicao 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nacional win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights