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Shock result as Estrela defy the odds to beat Nacional 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estrela beat Nacional 0-1 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.40 xG and Estrela 0.79 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nacional fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Estrela attack 0.65 / defence 0.97, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 51% | Draw 27% | Estrela 21%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Estrela win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 41%, Estrela 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estrela's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nacional 1.07 PPG, Estrela 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estrela win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Estrela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights