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Shock result as Estoril defy the odds to beat Nacional 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Nacional 0-1 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.95 xG and Estoril 1.58 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nacional fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against Estoril attack 1.23 / defence 1.26, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 46% | Draw 23% | Estoril 31%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Estoril win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 48%, Estoril 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estoril's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Nacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights