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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Nacional 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Nacional 1-2 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 0.77 xG and Benfica 1.93 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.91 / defence 1.20 against Benfica attack 1.21 / defence 0.63, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 13% | Draw 23% | Benfica 63%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 40%, Benfica 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Benfica's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights