Nacional 0-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nacional vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nacional and Benfica meet at Estádio da Madeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 19 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nacional's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Nacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nacional's home record at Estádio da Madeira: 3W 1D 2L from 6 Primeira Liga appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio da Madeira. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Nacional are significantly better at Estádio da Madeira than their overall form suggests.
Benfica have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Benfica have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Benfica are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Nacional — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Benfica — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Nacional 23% | Benfica 46%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nacional 23% | Benfica 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nacional 0.95 xG and Benfica 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nacional attack 0.765 / defence 0.991 | Benfica attack 1.147 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.094. Nacional's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Nacional games / 47 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nacional 28% | Draw 29% | Benfica 43%. Fair-value odds: Nacional 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Benfica 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benfica if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Nacional 17% | Benfica 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nacional vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio da Madeira • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nacional 28% | Draw 29% | Benfica 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Nacional 0.95 / Benfica 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Nacional attack 0.765 / def 0.991 | Benfica attack 1.147 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Benfica (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Nacional xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Benfica xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nacional vs Benfica kick off?
Nacional vs Benfica kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 19 December 2024 at Estádio da Madeira.
What was the final score in Nacional vs Benfica?
Nacional 0 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Nacional vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Madeira.
What competition is Nacional vs Benfica part of?
Nacional vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Nacional vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Nacional a 28% chance of winning, Benfica a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nacional vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nacional and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Nacional vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Benfica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nacional and Benfica in?
Nacional (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Benfica (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nacional's attack at 0.77x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (1.15x) against Nacional's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
28%
3.54
29%
3.48
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Nacional xG
Total xG
2.19
1.24
Benfica xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
8%
12.28
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.9 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nacional vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Nacional and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nacional and 1.24 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Nacional vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nacional come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 3D 7L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Nacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.46 PPG from 13 outings (10W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.54 PPG clear of Nacional — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nacional's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Nacional are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's season.
Attack vs Defence
Nacional are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.46 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nacional have seen both teams score in 23% of their recent games.
Defensively: Nacional have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Benfica in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nacional
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nacional and Benfica in coming into this match?
Nacional have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Benfica have gone 10W 2D 1L in their last 13 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nacional at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nacional at home: 1.67 PPG; Benfica away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Nacional or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nacional have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Benfica in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Benfica have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 3-0 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nacional have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nacional
0
Draws
4
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Benfica?
From 4 meetings on record, Nacional have won 0, Benfica have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nacional and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Benfica 2-0 Nacional.
Who has won more matches between Nacional and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nacional see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Nacional) and 50% (Benfica) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Nacional and 33% for Benfica.
On the defensive side: Nacional keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Benfica in 33%; Nacional have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nacional home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nacional play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Nacional's recent matches and 50% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nacional vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Nacional's recent games and 33% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nacional and Benfica tend to score early?
Nacional have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Benfica in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nacional.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Nacional 0-2 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 0.95 xG and Benfica 1.24 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nacional fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Benfica attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nacional 28% | Draw 29% | Benfica 43%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 23%, Benfica 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nacional's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Nacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.