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Prediction vindicated as Nacional edge out Alverca 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional beat Alverca 1-0 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.61 xG and Alverca 1.06 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alverca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Alverca attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 50% | Draw 25% | Alverca 25%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 45%, Alverca 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Alverca's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nacional 0.86 PPG, Alverca 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nacional win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Alverca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights