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Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Moreirense 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Moreirense 0-1 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 0.93 xG and SC Braga 1.75 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Moreirense fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.72 / defence 1.13 against SC Braga attack 1.35 / defence 0.84, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 20% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 57%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 53%, SC Braga 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Braga's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights