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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Moreirense cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rio Ave.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Moreirense beat Rio Ave 3-1 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.72 xG and Rio Ave 1.29 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Moreirense beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against Rio Ave attack 1.17 / defence 1.20, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 48% | Draw 24% | Rio Ave 29%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 49%, Rio Ave 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Rio Ave's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Moreirense 1.24 PPG, Rio Ave 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Moreirense win broke the near-deadlock. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Rio Ave (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights