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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sat 13 Sep 2025

15:30

Venue

Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Moreirense Win

48%

Moreirense

2.10

24%

Draw

4.23

29%

Rio Ave

3.48

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.9%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.4%

Home win

1 – 0

8.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.72

Moreirense xG

Total xG

3.01

1.29

Rio Ave xG

48%
24%
29%
MoreirenseDrawRio Ave

2.10

48%

Home win

4.23

24%

Draw

3.48

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

58%

Over 2.5

1.72

42%

Under 2.5

2.38

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.68

40%

BTTS No

2.47

Clean Sheet

28%

Moreirense

3.63

18%

Rio Ave

5.60

Win to Nil

13%

Moreirense

7.63

5%

Rio Ave

19.45

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.9 6.3 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.1
1 8.5 10.9 7.0 3.0 1.0 0.3
2 7.3 9.4 6.1 2.6 0.8 0.2
3 4.2 5.4 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.1
4 1.8 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.722
λ Away (xG) 1.290
Total xG 3.012
League avg home goals 1.355
League avg away goals 1.216
Moreirense attack strength 1.057
Moreirense defence strength 0.909
Rio Ave attack strength 1.167
Rio Ave defence strength 1.201
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 37