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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Moreirense and Nacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Moreirense and Nacional finished level at 1-1 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.25 xG and Nacional 0.86 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against Nacional attack 0.64 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 45% | Draw 29% | Nacional 26%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 50%, Nacional 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Nacional's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Moreirense 1.17 PPG, Nacional 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights