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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Moreirense and Guimaraes share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Moreirense and Guimaraes finished level at 2-2 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.11 xG and Guimaraes 1.09 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Moreirense beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guimaraes outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Guimaraes attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 36% | Draw 29% | Guimaraes 35%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 42%, Guimaraes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Guimaraes's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Moreirense 1.43 PPG, Guimaraes 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Moreirense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights