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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27

Kick-off

Sun 30 Mar 2025

20:30

Venue

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Moreirense Win

36%

Moreirense

2.78

29%

Draw

3.43

35%

Guimaraes

2.87

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.4%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.3%

Home win

0 – 1

12.1%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.11

Moreirense xG

Total xG

2.20

1.09

Guimaraes xG

36%
29%
35%
MoreirenseDrawGuimaraes

2.78

36%

Home win

3.43

29%

Draw

2.87

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

64%

Over 1.5

1.56

36%

Under 1.5

2.78

38%

Over 2.5

2.63

62%

Under 2.5

1.61

18%

Over 3.5

5.56

82%

Under 3.5

1.22

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

44%

BTTS Yes

2.25

56%

BTTS No

1.80

Clean Sheet

34%

Moreirense

2.97

33%

Guimaraes

3.03

Win to Nil

12%

Moreirense

8.25

11%

Guimaraes

8.70

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.1 12.1 6.6 2.4 0.6 0.1
1 12.3 13.4 7.3 2.6 0.7 0.2
2 6.8 7.4 4.0 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 2.5 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.1
4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.110
λ Away (xG) 1.088
Total xG 2.198
League avg home goals 1.351
League avg away goals 1.124
Moreirense attack strength 0.937
Moreirense defence strength 1.019
Guimaraes attack strength 0.949
Guimaraes defence strength 0.877
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 60 / 60