Moreirense 0-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Moreirense at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Moreirense welcome GIL Vicente to Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 October 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Moreirense have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Moreirense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Moreirense have posted 3W 3D 4L at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Moreirense at 1.20 PPG versus GIL Vicente's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Moreirense, 3 for GIL Vicente and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with GIL Vicente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Moreirense trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
GIL Vicente trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 48% versus GIL Vicente 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 52% | GIL Vicente 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.42 xG and GIL Vicente 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 1.040 / defence 1.150 | GIL Vicente attack 0.822 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.330. Data: 41 Moreirense games / 40 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 41% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 33%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | GIL Vicente 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Moreirense as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Moreirense 40% | GIL Vicente 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 41% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Moreirense 1.42 / GIL Vicente 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 1.040 / def 1.150 | GIL Vicente attack 0.822 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.26
GIL Vicente xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Moreirense 0 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente part of?
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 41% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Moreirense and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and GIL Vicente?
Record (8 meetings): Moreirense 3W | Draws 2 | GIL Vicente 3W.
What form are Moreirense and GIL Vicente in?
Moreirense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Moreirense's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
41%
2.44
26%
3.87
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.68
1.26
GIL Vicente xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Moreirense and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.26 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Moreirense's recent record stands at 13W 9D 18L from 40 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Moreirense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 12L across 40 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Moreirense on 1.20 PPG, GIL Vicente on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Moreirense have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 4W 9D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Moreirense are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.30 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 15W 13D 12L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or GIL Vicente away?
Moreirense's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.47 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Moreirense or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Moreirense's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Moreirense
2
Draws
4
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and GIL Vicente?
From 9 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 3, GIL Vicente have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Moreirense 0-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 47%, GIL Vicente 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Moreirense) and 53% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 37%; Moreirense have failed to score in 32% of games; GIL Vicente in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Moreirense's recent matches and 47% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Moreirense's matches and 53% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Moreirense and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat Moreirense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Moreirense 0-1 at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.42 xG and GIL Vicente 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Moreirense fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.04 / defence 1.15 against GIL Vicente attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 41% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 33%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 52%, GIL Vicente 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Moreirense 1.20 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.