Casa Pia 0-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Santa Clara (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Casa Pia face Santa Clara.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to take on Casa Pia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Casa Pia have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Santa Clara — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Santa Clara have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Santa Clara away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Santa Clara's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Casa Pia's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Casa Pia, 3 for Santa Clara and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Casa Pia trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Santa Clara trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 44% versus Santa Clara 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 44% | Santa Clara 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.86 xG and Santa Clara 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.765 / defence 1.450 | Santa Clara attack 0.958 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.352. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Casa Pia games / 41 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 17% | Draw 22% | Santa Clara 61%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 5.88 | Draw 4.55 | Santa Clara 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Santa Clara (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Santa Clara as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 40% | Santa Clara 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 17% | Draw 22% | Santa Clara 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Casa Pia 0.86 / Santa Clara 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.765 / def 1.450 | Santa Clara attack 0.958 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Santa Clara xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Santa Clara kick off?
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Casa Pia 0 - 1 Santa Clara.
Where is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara part of?
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 17% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Casa Pia and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
Record (6 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 2 | Santa Clara 3W.
What form are Casa Pia and Santa Clara in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Santa Clara (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
17%
6.02
22%
4.55
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.73
1.88
Santa Clara xG
6.02
17%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
15%
6.53
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
3%
39.34
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 12.2 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.88 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia come into this having played 41 games, going 7W 14D 20L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 1.24 PPG from 41 outings (13W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Santa Clara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Casa Pia on 0.85 PPG, Santa Clara on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Casa Pia's home form reads 3W 9D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (4W 8D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.05 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Early Season
Santa Clara
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 7W 14D 20L in their last 41 games (0.85 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 13W 12D 16L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Santa Clara away?
Santa Clara's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.90 PPG; Santa Clara away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Casa Pia's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
2
Draws
4
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
From 7 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Santa Clara have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Casa Pia 0-1 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 55%, Santa Clara 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Casa Pia and 35% for Santa Clara.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia have failed to score in 40% of games; Santa Clara in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 50% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Casa Pia's recent games and 35% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out Casa Pia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Casa Pia 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.86 xG and Santa Clara 1.88 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Santa Clara landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.77 / defence 1.45 against Santa Clara attack 0.96 / defence 0.86, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 17% | Draw 22% | Santa Clara 61%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 44%, Santa Clara 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santa Clara's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 0.85 PPG, Santa Clara 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.