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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Moreirense 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Moreirense 1-2 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.03 xG and FC Porto 1.63 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.17 / defence 0.92 against FC Porto attack 1.46 / defence 0.65, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 22% | Draw 29% | FC Porto 49%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 55%, FC Porto 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

FC Porto's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Moreirense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights