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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 9

Kick-off

Mon 27 Oct 2025

20:15

Venue

Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

22%

Moreirense

4.51

29%

Draw

3.50

49%

FC Porto

2.03

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.8%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

11.4%

Away win

1 – 2

9.6%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.03

Moreirense xG

Total xG

2.66

1.63

FC Porto xG

22%
29%
49%
MoreirenseDrawFC Porto

4.51

22%

Home win

3.50

29%

Draw

2.03

49%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

50%

Over 2.5

2.00

50%

Under 2.5

2.00

28%

Over 3.5

3.57

72%

Under 3.5

1.39

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.86

46%

BTTS No

2.16

Clean Sheet

20%

Moreirense

5.09

36%

FC Porto

2.82

Win to Nil

4%

Moreirense

22.96

17%

FC Porto

5.72

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.0 11.4 9.2 5.0 2.0 0.7
1 7.2 11.8 9.6 5.2 2.1 0.7
2 3.7 6.1 4.9 2.7 1.1 0.4
3 1.3 2.1 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1
4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.035
λ Away (xG) 1.627
Total xG 2.662
League avg home goals 1.354
League avg away goals 1.207
Moreirense attack strength 1.168
Moreirense defence strength 0.922
FC Porto attack strength 1.461
FC Porto defence strength 0.654
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 42 / 42