🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Moreirense edge out Estrela 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Moreirense beat Estrela 3-2 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.15 xG and Estrela 0.84 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Moreirense beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estrela outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.70 / defence 0.99 against Estrela attack 0.75 / defence 1.13, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 43% | Draw 30% | Estrela 27%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 52%, Estrela 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Estrela's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Moreirense 1.22 PPG, Estrela 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Moreirense win broke the near-deadlock. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. Estrela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.59 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights