🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Moreirense and Estrela share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 24, as Moreirense and Estrela drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.31 xG and Estrela 0.80 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.01 / defence 1.09 against Estrela attack 0.65 / defence 0.96, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 48% | Draw 30% | Estrela 22%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 44%, Estrela 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Estrela's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights