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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Moreirense defy the odds to beat Casa Pia 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Moreirense beat Casa Pia 3-2 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.26 xG and Casa Pia 1.34 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Moreirense beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Casa Pia attack 1.12 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 34% | Draw 28% | Casa Pia 38%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Moreirense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 44%, Casa Pia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Casa Pia's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Moreirense 1.42 PPG, Casa Pia 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Moreirense win broke the near-deadlock. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights