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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Sat 15 Feb 2025

15:30

Venue

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Casa Pia Win

34%

Moreirense

2.92

28%

Draw

3.62

38%

Casa Pia

2.62

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.0%

Away win

1 – 0

9.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.26

Moreirense xG

Total xG

2.60

1.34

Casa Pia xG

34%
28%
38%
MoreirenseDrawCasa Pia

2.92

34%

Home win

3.62

28%

Draw

2.62

38%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.87

47%

BTTS No

2.15

Clean Sheet

26%

Moreirense

3.83

28%

Casa Pia

3.51

Win to Nil

9%

Moreirense

11.19

11%

Casa Pia

9.21

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.4 10.0 6.7 3.0 1.0 0.3
1 9.3 12.5 8.4 3.8 1.3 0.3
2 5.9 7.9 5.3 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 2.5 3.3 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.257
λ Away (xG) 1.342
Total xG 2.599
League avg home goals 1.390
League avg away goals 1.184
Moreirense attack strength 0.858
Moreirense defence strength 1.009
Casa Pia attack strength 1.123
Casa Pia defence strength 1.054
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 55 / 55