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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Moreirense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Moreirense 0-4 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.66 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Moreirense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.23 / defence 1.05 against Benfica attack 1.24 / defence 0.68, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 26% | Draw 25% | Benfica 49%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 57%, Benfica 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Benfica's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights