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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 14

Kick-off

Sun 14 Dec 2025

18:00

Venue

Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Benfica Win

26%

Moreirense

3.88

25%

Draw

3.95

49%

Benfica

2.04

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.5%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.1%

Away win

1 – 2

9.5%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.14

Moreirense xG

Total xG

2.79

1.66

Benfica xG

26%
25%
49%
MoreirenseDrawBenfica

3.88

26%

Home win

3.95

25%

Draw

2.04

49%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.80

45%

BTTS No

2.25

Clean Sheet

19%

Moreirense

5.23

32%

Benfica

3.12

Win to Nil

5%

Moreirense

20.31

16%

Benfica

6.38

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.1 10.1 8.4 4.6 1.9 0.6
1 7.0 11.5 9.5 5.3 2.2 0.7
2 4.0 6.6 5.4 3.0 1.2 0.4
3 1.5 2.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2
4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.139
λ Away (xG) 1.655
Total xG 2.794
League avg home goals 1.358
League avg away goals 1.271
Moreirense attack strength 1.226
Moreirense defence strength 1.049
Benfica attack strength 1.241
Benfica defence strength 0.684
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 47 / 47