Moreirense 1-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Moreirense at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs Benfica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas plays host to Moreirense versus Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 30 August 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Moreirense have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Moreirense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Moreirense at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Benfica's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Moreirense, 1.90 for Benfica — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Moreirense lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Benfica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Moreirense half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Benfica half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 35% versus Benfica 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 40% | Benfica 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.60 xG and Benfica 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 1.117 / defence 0.908 | Benfica attack 0.917 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.284. Data: 37 Moreirense games / 37 Benfica games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Moreirense 50% | Draw 25% | Benfica 25%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Benfica 4.00. Moreirense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Moreirense as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Moreirense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Moreirense 30% | Benfica 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 50% | Draw 25% | Benfica 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Moreirense 1.60 / Benfica 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 1.117 / def 0.908 | Benfica attack 0.917 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Benfica xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Benfica kick off?
Moreirense vs Benfica kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
Moreirense 1 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Moreirense vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Benfica part of?
Moreirense vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 50% chance of winning, Benfica a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Moreirense and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Benfica?
Record (4 meetings): Moreirense 0W | Draws 2 | Benfica 2W.
What form are Moreirense and Benfica in?
Moreirense (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Benfica (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Moreirense's attack at 1.12x the league average against Benfica's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (0.92x) against Moreirense's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
50%
2.01
25%
4.01
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.67
1.07
Benfica xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
5%
19.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.07 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Moreirense come into this having played 37 games, going 18W 7D 12L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Moreirense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.32 PPG from 37 outings (27W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Moreirense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Moreirense's home form reads 9W 4D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 1.83 points per game from 18 outings (10W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Moreirense are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.19 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Benfica in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Benfica in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 18W 7D 12L in their last 37 games (1.65 PPG), while Benfica have gone 27W 5D 5L in their last 37 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.72 PPG; Benfica away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Moreirense or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Benfica in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Benfica go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Moreirense have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Moreirense
3
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Benfica?
From 9 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 0, Benfica have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when Moreirense 0-4 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 44%, Benfica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Moreirense) and 56% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Moreirense keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Benfica in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Moreirense's recent matches and 50% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Moreirense vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Moreirense's recent games and 56% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and Benfica tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Benfica in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Moreirense and Benfica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 4, as Moreirense and Benfica drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.60 xG and Benfica 1.07 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against Benfica attack 0.92 / defence 1.07, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 50% | Draw 25% | Benfica 25%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 40%, Benfica 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Benfica's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.