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Stalemate at Moreirense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 34, as Moreirense and AVS drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.56 xG and AVS 1.03 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Moreirense fell 1.6 short of their projected output. AVS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against AVS attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 50% | Draw 25% | AVS 25%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 52%, AVS 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AVS's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. AVS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights