Maritimo 0-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Maritimo face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Maritimo host Benfica at Estádio dos Barreiros in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Maritimo — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's home record at Estádio dos Barreiros: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Benfica have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Maritimo's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 0–5 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Maritimo trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Benfica trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 53% versus Benfica 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 46% | Benfica 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 0.77 xG and Benfica 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.920 / defence 1.009 | Benfica attack 1.407 / defence 0.630. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.049. Benfica's defence strength of 0.630 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.407 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Maritimo games / 57 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 19% | Draw 26% | Benfica 54%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Benfica 1.85. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 50% | Benfica 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 19% | Draw 26% | Benfica 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Maritimo 0.77 / Benfica 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.920 / def 1.009 | Benfica attack 1.407 / def 0.630 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Benfica (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Benfica xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Benfica kick off?
Maritimo vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Benfica?
Maritimo 0 - 3 Benfica.
Where is Maritimo vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Benfica part of?
Maritimo vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 19% chance of winning, Benfica a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Maritimo and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Benfica?
Record (3 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 3W.
What form are Maritimo and Benfica in?
Maritimo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Maritimo's attack rating (0.92) and Benfica's defence rating (0.63), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Maritimo's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
19%
5.16
26%
3.80
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.26
1.49
Benfica xG
5.16
19%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
4%
22.91
25%
3.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 15.5 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.49 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Maritimo come into this having played 57 games, going 13W 15D 29L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.39 PPG from 57 outings (43W 7D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.44 PPG clear of Maritimo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Maritimo's home form reads 7W 8D 13L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 2.46 points per game from 28 outings (22W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Maritimo are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.39 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Benfica in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 13W 15D 29L in their last 57 games (0.95 PPG), while Benfica have gone 43W 7D 7L in their last 57 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.04 PPG; Benfica away: 2.46 PPG.
Have Maritimo or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Benfica in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Maritimo and Benfica runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Benfica won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Maritimo's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Maritimo
0
Draws
4
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Benfica?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 0, Benfica have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Maritimo 0-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 46%, Benfica 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Maritimo) and 54% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 61%; Maritimo have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Maritimo's recent matches and 36% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Maritimo's recent games and 54% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Benfica tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Benfica in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Maritimo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Maritimo 0-3 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 0.77 xG and Benfica 1.49 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Benfica attack 1.41 / defence 0.63, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 19% | Draw 26% | Benfica 54%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 46%, Benfica 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Maritimo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.