Guimaraes 0-2 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guimaraes at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guimaraes vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques plays host to Guimaraes versus Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 11 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guimaraes have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guimaraes at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Guimaraes are significantly better at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques than their overall form suggests.
Arouca (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Guimaraes, 1 for Arouca and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Guimaraes half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 49% versus Arouca 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 51% | Arouca 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 1.24 xG and Arouca 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 0.933 / defence 0.847 | Arouca attack 0.799 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.013. Data: 57 Guimaraes games / 57 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guimaraes 49% | Draw 30% | Arouca 21%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Arouca 4.76. Guimaraes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Arouca's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guimaraes at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guimaraes if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: Guimaraes 40% | Arouca 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guimaraes vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guimaraes 49% | Draw 30% | Arouca 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Guimaraes 1.24 / Arouca 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Guimaraes attack 0.933 / def 0.847 | Arouca attack 0.799 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Guimaraes (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Guimaraes xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Arouca xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guimaraes vs Arouca kick off?
Guimaraes vs Arouca kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Guimaraes 0 - 2 Arouca.
Where is Guimaraes vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Guimaraes vs Arouca part of?
Guimaraes vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Guimaraes a 49% chance of winning, Arouca a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guimaraes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Guimaraes and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Guimaraes vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Arouca?
Record (2 meetings): Guimaraes 0W | Draws 1 | Arouca 1W.
What form are Guimaraes and Arouca in?
Guimaraes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Arouca (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Guimaraes's attack at 0.93x the league average against Arouca's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.80x) against Guimaraes's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guimaraes Win
49%
2.02
30%
3.34
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Guimaraes xG
Total xG
1.92
0.69
Arouca xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
6%
16.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 10.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Guimaraes and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Guimaraes and 0.69 for Arouca, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guimaraes's recent record stands at 25W 13D 19L from 57 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Guimaraes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 24L across 57 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guimaraes by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Guimaraes have managed 17W 5D 6L from 28 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Guimaraes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Arouca's away record stands at 4W 12D 12L across 28 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guimaraes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Guimaraes are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 0.98 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guimaraes
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guimaraes and Arouca in coming into this match?
Guimaraes have gone 25W 13D 19L in their last 57 games (1.54 PPG), while Arouca have gone 16W 17D 24L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guimaraes at home or Arouca away?
Guimaraes's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guimaraes at home: 2.00 PPG; Arouca away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Guimaraes or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guimaraes have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Arouca in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Arouca go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guimaraes have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Guimaraes
3
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, Guimaraes have won 3, Arouca have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Guimaraes and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Guimaraes 0-1 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Guimaraes and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guimaraes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guimaraes 54%, Arouca 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Guimaraes) and 43% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Guimaraes keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Arouca in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guimaraes home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guimaraes play Arouca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Guimaraes's games and 57% of Arouca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guimaraes vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Guimaraes's recent games and 43% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guimaraes and Arouca tend to score early?
Guimaraes have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Arouca in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arouca cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Guimaraes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Guimaraes 0-2 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.24 xG and Arouca 0.69 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Guimaraes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Arouca outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 0.93 / defence 0.85 against Arouca attack 0.80 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 49% | Draw 30% | Arouca 21%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Arouca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 51%, Arouca 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guimaraes's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arouca's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Arouca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.