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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Guimaraes run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Tondela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Tondela 5-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.51 xG and Tondela 1.04 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Guimaraes beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tondela landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against Tondela attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 61/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 48% | Draw 26% | Tondela 26%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 46%, Tondela 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Tondela's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Tondela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights