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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Fri 3 Apr 2026

18:00

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

48%

Guimaraes

2.07

26%

Draw

3.88

26%

Tondela

3.85

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.8%

Home win

2 – 1

9.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.51

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.55

1.04

Tondela xG

48%
26%
26%
GuimaraesDrawTondela

2.07

48%

Home win

3.88

26%

Draw

3.85

26%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

1.99

50%

BTTS No

2.01

Clean Sheet

35%

Guimaraes

2.82

22%

Tondela

4.54

Win to Nil

17%

Guimaraes

5.86

6%

Tondela

17.47

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.8 8.1 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1
1 11.8 12.3 6.4 2.2 0.6 0.1
2 8.9 9.3 4.8 1.7 0.4 0.1
3 4.5 4.7 2.4 0.8 0.2
4 1.7 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.513
λ Away (xG) 1.038
Total xG 2.551
League avg home goals 1.478
League avg away goals 1.154
Guimaraes attack strength 0.906
Guimaraes defence strength 1.055
Tondela attack strength 0.852
Tondela defence strength 1.130
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 61 / 26