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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Guimaraes and Sporting CP share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes and Sporting CP finished level at 4-4 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.21 xG and Sporting CP 1.75 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Guimaraes beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sporting CP outscored their 1.75 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.14 / defence 1.03 against Sporting CP attack 1.52 / defence 0.78, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 26% | Draw 24% | Sporting CP 50%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 54%, Sporting CP 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Sporting CP's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights