Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 17

Kick-off

Fri 3 Jan 2025

20:15

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

26%

Guimaraes

3.78

24%

Draw

4.26

50%

Sporting CP

2.00

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

9.6%

Away win

0 – 1

9.0%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.21

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.97

1.75

Sporting CP xG

26%
24%
50%
GuimaraesDrawSporting CP

3.78

26%

Home win

4.26

24%

Draw

2.00

50%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

57%

Over 2.5

1.75

43%

Under 2.5

2.33

35%

Over 3.5

2.86

65%

Under 3.5

1.54

18%

Over 4.5

5.56

82%

Under 4.5

1.22

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.72

42%

BTTS No

2.39

Clean Sheet

17%

Guimaraes

5.77

30%

Sporting CP

3.37

Win to Nil

5%

Guimaraes

21.80

15%

Sporting CP

6.73

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.1 9.0 7.9 4.6 2.0 0.7
1 6.2 11.0 9.6 5.6 2.5 0.9
2 3.8 6.6 5.8 3.4 1.5 0.5
3 1.5 2.7 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.2
4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.214
λ Away (xG) 1.753
Total xG 2.967
League avg home goals 1.375
League avg away goals 1.121
Guimaraes attack strength 1.140
Guimaraes defence strength 1.027
Sporting CP attack strength 1.522
Sporting CP defence strength 0.775
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 50 / 50