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Stalemate at Guimaraes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 22, as Guimaraes and SC Braga drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.19 xG and SC Braga 1.58 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guimaraes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SC Braga landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.30 / defence 1.12 against SC Braga attack 1.18 / defence 0.67, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 28% | Draw 26% | SC Braga 46%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 53%, SC Braga 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

SC Braga's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.69 PPG, SC Braga 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights