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Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out Santa Clara 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Santa Clara 2-1 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.28 xG and Santa Clara 1.06 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.06 / defence 0.98 against Santa Clara attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 41% | Draw 29% | Santa Clara 30%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 44%, Santa Clara 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Santa Clara's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.51 PPG, Santa Clara 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights