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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sat 4 Oct 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

41%

Guimaraes

2.45

29%

Draw

3.47

30%

Santa Clara

3.29

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.3%

Home win

0 – 1

10.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.28

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.34

1.06

Santa Clara xG

41%
29%
30%
GuimaraesDrawSanta Clara

2.45

41%

Home win

3.47

29%

Draw

3.29

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

68%

Over 1.5

1.47

32%

Under 1.5

3.12

42%

Over 2.5

2.38

58%

Under 2.5

1.72

21%

Over 3.5

4.76

79%

Under 3.5

1.27

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.10

52%

BTTS No

1.91

Clean Sheet

34%

Guimaraes

2.90

28%

Santa Clara

3.59

Win to Nil

14%

Guimaraes

7.11

8%

Santa Clara

11.79

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.6 10.2 5.5 1.9 0.5 0.1
1 12.3 13.1 7.0 2.5 0.7 0.1
2 7.8 8.3 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 3.3 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.2
4 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.277
λ Away (xG) 1.065
Total xG 2.342
League avg home goals 1.303
League avg away goals 1.228
Guimaraes attack strength 1.059
Guimaraes defence strength 0.976
Santa Clara attack strength 0.889
Santa Clara defence strength 0.926
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41