Arouca 1-2 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Famalicao make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to face Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 2W 5D 3L at Estádio Municipal de Arouca — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Famalicao (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Arouca against 1.70 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Arouca have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Famalicao in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Arouca, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Famalicao — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Arouca a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Arouca — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 54% versus Famalicao 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 57% | Famalicao 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.19 xG and Famalicao 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.795 / defence 1.022 | Famalicao attack 1.066 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.175. Arouca's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Arouca games / 61 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 34% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 39%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Famalicao 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 60% | Famalicao 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 34% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Arouca 1.19 / Famalicao 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.795 / def 1.022 | Famalicao attack 1.066 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Famalicao xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Famalicao kick off?
Arouca vs Famalicao kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Famalicao?
Arouca 1 - 2 Famalicao.
Where is Arouca vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Famalicao part of?
Arouca vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 34% chance of winning, Famalicao a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Arouca and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Famalicao?
Record (7 meetings): Arouca 4W | Draws 2 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are Arouca and Famalicao in?
Arouca (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Famalicao (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.80x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (1.07x) against Arouca's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.68
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.46
1.28
Famalicao xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Arouca and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Arouca and 1.28 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca's recent record stands at 20W 15D 26L from 61 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 20L across 61 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Arouca against 1.30 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 10W 8D 12L from 30 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 8W 10D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.15 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 20W 15D 26L in their last 61 games (1.23 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 19W 22D 20L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Famalicao away?
Arouca's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.27 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Arouca or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Famalicao in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 4-1 on 10 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Arouca
3
Draws
3
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 4, Famalicao have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Famalicao 1-0 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Famalicao?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 47%, Famalicao 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Arouca) and 47% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Arouca have failed to score in 37% of games; Famalicao in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Arouca's recent matches and 53% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Arouca's recent games and 47% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Famalicao tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Arouca 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Arouca 1-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.19 xG and Famalicao 1.28 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Famalicao attack 1.07 / defence 1.10, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 34% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 39%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 57%, Famalicao 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 1.23 PPG, Famalicao 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.