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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Guimaraes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rio Ave.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Rio Ave 2-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.62 xG and Rio Ave 1.09 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rio Ave landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Rio Ave attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 50% | Draw 25% | Rio Ave 26%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 47%, Rio Ave 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rio Ave's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.45 PPG, Rio Ave 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. Guimaraes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Rio Ave (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights