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Dominant Guimaraes run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rio Ave.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Rio Ave 3-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.49 xG and Rio Ave 1.00 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guimaraes beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rio Ave landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.13 / defence 0.95 against Rio Ave attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 48% | Draw 26% | Rio Ave 26%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 50%, Rio Ave 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rio Ave's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Rio Ave (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights