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Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out Nacional 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Nacional 2-1 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.28 xG and Nacional 1.17 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against Nacional attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 38% | Draw 29% | Nacional 33%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 45%, Nacional 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Nacional's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Nacional (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights