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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 17

Kick-off

Fri 2 Jan 2026

20:45

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

38%

Guimaraes

2.60

29%

Draw

3.50

33%

Nacional

3.03

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.9%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.1%

Home win

0 – 1

10.1%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.28

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.45

1.17

Nacional xG

38%
29%
33%
GuimaraesDrawNacional

2.60

38%

Home win

3.50

29%

Draw

3.03

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

70%

Over 1.5

1.43

30%

Under 1.5

3.33

44%

Over 2.5

2.27

56%

Under 2.5

1.79

23%

Over 3.5

4.35

77%

Under 3.5

1.30

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

1.98

50%

BTTS No

2.02

Clean Sheet

31%

Guimaraes

3.22

28%

Nacional

3.61

Win to Nil

12%

Guimaraes

8.36

9%

Nacional

10.94

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.6 10.1 5.9 2.3 0.7 0.2
1 11.1 12.9 7.5 2.9 0.9 0.2
2 7.1 8.3 4.8 1.9 0.6 0.1
3 3.0 3.5 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1
4 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.283
λ Away (xG) 1.168
Total xG 2.451
League avg home goals 1.382
League avg away goals 1.268
Guimaraes attack strength 1.025
Guimaraes defence strength 1.088
Nacional attack strength 0.847
Nacional defence strength 0.905
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 50 / 49