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Guimaraes and Nacional share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 15, as Guimaraes and Nacional drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.71 xG and Nacional 0.60 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Nacional outscored their 0.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against Nacional attack 0.60 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 64% | Draw 23% | Nacional 13%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 43%, Nacional 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Nacional's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Guimaraes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights