Guimaraes 1-0 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guimaraes at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guimaraes vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Maritimo make the trip to Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques to face Guimaraes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guimaraes have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Guimaraes are significantly better at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques than their overall form suggests.
Maritimo's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Guimaraes's favour (1.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Guimaraes lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Guimaraes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Guimaraes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 52% versus Maritimo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 52% | Maritimo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 2.05 xG and Maritimo 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 1.161 / defence 0.997 | Maritimo attack 0.830 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.087. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Guimaraes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Guimaraes games / 46 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guimaraes 64% | Draw 20% | Maritimo 16%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Maritimo 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Guimaraes (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guimaraes as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guimaraes 30% | Maritimo 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guimaraes vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guimaraes 64% | Draw 20% | Maritimo 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 52% | xG Guimaraes 2.05 / Maritimo 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Guimaraes attack 1.161 / def 0.997 | Maritimo attack 0.830 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Guimaraes (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Guimaraes xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Maritimo xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guimaraes vs Maritimo kick off?
Guimaraes vs Maritimo kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Guimaraes 1 - 0 Maritimo.
Where is Guimaraes vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Guimaraes vs Maritimo part of?
Guimaraes vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Guimaraes a 64% chance of winning, Maritimo a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Guimaraes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Guimaraes and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Guimaraes vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Maritimo?
Record (2 meetings): Guimaraes 2W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are Guimaraes and Maritimo in?
Guimaraes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Maritimo (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guimaraes's attack rating (1.16) and Maritimo's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.83x) against Guimaraes's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guimaraes Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.92
16%
6.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Guimaraes xG
Total xG
2.95
0.90
Maritimo xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
6.43
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
13%
7.80
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
2%
50.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Guimaraes and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Guimaraes and 0.90 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guimaraes's recent record stands at 19W 11D 16L from 46 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Guimaraes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 22L across 46 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guimaraes by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Maritimo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Guimaraes have managed 13W 4D 6L from 23 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Maritimo's away record stands at 6W 6D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guimaraes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guimaraes are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.02 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guimaraes
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guimaraes and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Guimaraes have gone 19W 11D 16L in their last 46 games (1.48 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 10W 14D 22L in their last 46 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guimaraes at home or Maritimo away?
Guimaraes's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guimaraes at home: 1.87 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Guimaraes have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guimaraes have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Guimaraes
0
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Guimaraes have won 4, Maritimo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guimaraes and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Maritimo 1-2 Guimaraes.
Who has won more matches between Guimaraes and Maritimo?
Guimaraes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guimaraes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guimaraes 56%, Maritimo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Guimaraes) and 56% (Maritimo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guimaraes keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guimaraes home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guimaraes play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Guimaraes's games and 61% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guimaraes vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Guimaraes's matches and 56% of Maritimo's.
Do Guimaraes and Maritimo tend to score early?
Guimaraes have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out Maritimo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guimaraes beat Maritimo 1-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 2.05 xG and Maritimo 0.90 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guimaraes fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Maritimo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.16 / defence 1.00 against Maritimo attack 0.83 / defence 1.34, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 64% | Draw 20% | Maritimo 16%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 52%, Maritimo 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guimaraes's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Maritimo's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Maritimo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.