Famalicao 1-2 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 47%, yet in-form Sporting CP provide a compelling counter-argument — this Famalicao vs Sporting CP fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Sporting CP in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho than their overall form suggests.
Sporting CP have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sporting CP are 0.70 PPG clear of Famalicao in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Famalicao lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Sporting CP winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 50% versus Sporting CP 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 54% | Sporting CP 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.53 xG and Sporting CP 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.144 / defence 0.931 | Sporting CP attack 1.069 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.104. Data: 46 Famalicao games / 46 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 47% | Draw 25% | Sporting CP 27%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Sporting CP 3.70. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sporting CP (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 50% | Sporting CP 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 47% | Draw 25% | Sporting CP 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Famalicao 1.53 / Sporting CP 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.144 / def 0.931 | Sporting CP attack 1.069 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sporting CP xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Sporting CP kick off?
Famalicao vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Famalicao 1 - 2 Sporting CP.
Where is Famalicao vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Sporting CP part of?
Famalicao vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 47% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Famalicao and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Sporting CP?
Record (2 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 1 | Sporting CP 1W.
What form are Famalicao and Sporting CP in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Sporting CP (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Famalicao's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Sporting CP's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.07x) against Famalicao's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.93
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.63
1.10
Sporting CP xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
6%
17.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.10 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 12W 14D 20L from 46 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP, meanwhile, have gone 34W 5D 7L across 46 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 1.24 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Famalicao heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 8W 7D 7L from 22 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sporting CP's away record stands at 14W 4D 4L across 22 trips, a 2.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.11 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 12W 14D 20L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 34W 5D 7L in their last 46 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.41 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sporting CP go into this on the back of 9 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Famalicao
1
Draws
9
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 0, Sporting CP have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Sporting CP 1-0 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 50%, Sporting CP 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Famalicao and 64% for Sporting CP. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sporting CP in 32%; Famalicao have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Famalicao's recent matches and 59% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Famalicao's matches and 64% of Sporting CP's.
Do Famalicao and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sporting CP defy the odds to beat Famalicao 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.53 xG and Sporting CP 1.10 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sporting CP outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.14 / defence 0.93 against Sporting CP attack 1.07 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 47% | Draw 25% | Sporting CP 27%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Sporting CP win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 54%, Sporting CP 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sporting CP's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.