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Stalemate at Guimaraes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes and GIL Vicente finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.20 xG and GIL Vicente 1.38 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guimaraes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. GIL Vicente landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.17 / defence 0.97 against GIL Vicente attack 1.07 / defence 0.77, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 32% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 41%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 46%, GIL Vicente 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.54 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights