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Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Guimaraes 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Guimaraes 0-1 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 0.83 xG and FC Porto 1.79 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guimaraes fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against FC Porto attack 1.34 / defence 0.56, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 17% | Draw 23% | FC Porto 60%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 45%, FC Porto 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Porto's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.55. That form edge translated into the three points. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Porto (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights