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Guimaraes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Estrela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Estrela 2-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.45 xG and Estrela 0.73 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.14 / defence 0.94 against Estrela attack 0.69 / defence 0.94, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 54% | Draw 27% | Estrela 19%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 51%, Estrela 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Estrela's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Guimaraes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights